He adds that Putin is likely trying to organise Kadyrov’s succession to ensure Moscow can keep a lid on the Chechnyans.
Writing for The Times, Mark Galeotti said: “If attempts to install a new leader cause splits in the Chechen elite, then this is likely to become not just a political but an armed dispute.
“In the words of one Russian political commentator, ‘There are too many men with guns and grudges there to be able to assume that things won’t turn bloody’.”
Galeotti explains how Putin may even be forced to take some of his troops from Ukraine and send them to Chechnya to help secure the region during the period of transition after Kadyrov’s expected death.
The expert also explained how Chechen leaders use threats to ensure Putin does not desert the region. This includes the threat of jihadism causing chaos in Russia.
He said: “After the recent terrorist attack, leaders of regions with large Muslim populations warn of the risk that angry locals might turn to jihadism if funds are cut.”
Last week, Kadyrov sought to quash any speculation surrounding his health by sharing a video of him exercising in the gym.
He also said: “A busy day ended with exercise and positivity. Remember that taking care of your health is an investment in your future.”
