Prices of three items could rise as wet winter hits UK crops

Prices of British staples such as bread, beer and biscuits might rise this year due to the potential impact of unseasonably wet weather on UK crops. A new analysis predicts the inclement climate could reduce harvests by almost a fifth.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has scrutinised crop forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and Government data. It found that harvested quantities of key crops such as wheat, barley, oats, and oilseed rape could slip down by four million tonnes in comparison with 2023, which amounts to a cutback of 17.5 percent.

Even graver, the shortfall might exceed five million tonnes a decline touching 21.2 percent if juxtaposed with the average yield between 2015 and 2023.

This comes hot on the heels of an unusually soggy autumn, which led to less-than-optimum planting levels. As if this wasn’t enough, consecutive storms and flooding throughout winter dealt a further blow to hardworking UK farmers.

Tom Lancaster, a land analyst at ECIU, alerted to a “real risk” of prices of bread, beer and biscuits heading northwards if the lacklustre harvest results in escalated production costs.

His caution gains prominence even as food prices have begun to retreat. This comes after inflation soared off the charts on the back of the global gas price crisis.

Wheat restraint could bear the brunt, with the ECIU foreseeing a slump exceeding a quarter 26.5 percent against the figures noted for 2023. This is because milling wheat used to make bread needs to meet higher quality requirements that will be more difficult for farmers to achieve with the wet weather.

The Chief of Associated British Foods, housing some of the UK’s largest breadmakers with brands like Kingsmill and Ryvita, has cautioned that prices could escalate if increasing domestic grain costs are not counterbalanced by larger overseas harvests.

Ongoing wet weather is affecting the planting of spring crops like barley; this situation can potentially inflate brewers’ and distillers’ expenses which may in turn also augment the cost of a pint, says ECIU.

Colin Chappel, a Lincolnshire-based arable farmer and member of the Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN) said: “It’s had a massive impact on us.

“We went through the winter with virtually nothing viable drilled, and while it’s now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don’t think they’ll get drilled this year. The situation is very hit and miss.”

This follows the recent observations by the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) which highlighted extreme weather as one of the major risks to UK food security.

Climate change predictions anticipate warmer and wetter winters similar to the previous year becoming more common.

Mr Lancaster highlighted: “To withstand the wetter winters that will come from climate change, farmers need more support.

“The Government’s green farming schemes are vital to this, helping farmers to invest in their soils to allow them to recover faster from both floods and droughts.”

With half of the British food being imported, Mr Lancaster insisted that the Government must ensure sustained assistance to both local and foreign farmers.

“Moving faster to net zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security,” he added.

Mr Chappell highlighted the Government’s new Sustainable Farming Incentive as a lifeline for his farm’s future, saying, “The climate is making farming on heavy clay soils like mine very difficult and quite demoralising,”.

William Kendall, an East Anglian farmer and the entrepreneur who scaled Green & Blacks into a worldwide chocolate sensation, advocates for regenerative agriculture. He said: “Regenerative farming methods, when properly followed, greatly enhance the soil’s capacity to hold water and therefore prevent saturation and run-off at times of prolonged heavy rainfall.”

He further explained the benefits: “Not only does this mean better crops, produced at a lower cost for the farmer, but it ensures that the chances of the flash flooding downstream we have seen this winter are greatly diminished.”

Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, expressed concerns over the industry’s financial pressures. She said: “Since the pandemic, managing the cost of doing business for brewers and pubs, including dealing with an overall increasing tax burden, has proven more difficult than usual.”

She also pointed out the additional strain from the weather: “This year’s prolonged rain and the effect that it may have on the winter harvest is yet another unexpected cost factor.”

“Brewers and pubs will strive to absorb some of these costs, but with margins at historical lows, if it cannot be avoided, some costs will have to be passed on, underlining the urgency for the government to set out a long-term fiscal and regulatory framework that will ensure that the beer and pub sector does not just survive, but thrives.”

A Government spokesperson stated: “We have protected over 900,000 acres of agricultural land from the impacts of flooding since 2015, and are investing £5.6 billion to better protect communities from flooding and coastal erosion.

“We have opened the Farming Recovery Fund, which provides grants of up to £25,000 to eligible farmers affected by Storm Henk.

“We continue to keep the weather situation and the subsequent impact on the 2024 harvest under close review.”