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The truth about crime: America is getting safer, no matter what Trump claims

FBI statistics out this week show that violent crime nationwide dropped by 15% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period last year. Murder went down 26%, aggravated assaults down 12.5%, robberies down 17.8%, reported rapes down 26% — and reported property crimes down 15%.

A more up-to-date analysis by crime data expert Jeff Asher shows shootings down in 26 of 30 cities with available data and murders down 18.1% as of the end of May in more that 260 cities.

But the facts don’t matter to Donald Trump, who keeps saying: Crime rates are soaring in America. Surprise, surprise, the claim is utter and total garbage, invented to stoke fear of newcomers and get his supporters trembling to the polls. But it’s not real and the facts don’t lie.

Yes, shootings remain up compared to pre-pandemic totals — but remember, the massive spike in violent crime happened in 2020, when Trump was president. Murder went up by 30% in a single year, an unprecedented leap. 

In truth, the nation has been recovering.

In the parallel universe inside the mind of Trump, an increase in asylum seekers, and a failure to support police, and an overall leftward drift against “law and order” is fueling unprecedented violence. 

Trouble is, even where migrants are going, even where progressive prosecutors are in charge, crime is trending down. In New York City, murder totals are 15% below last year’s so far in 2024, and shooting incidents are down 16% (felony and misdemeanor assaults, and robberies, are up). Yes, that includes Manhattan, where District Attorney Alvin Bragg is not only paying attention to white-collar crimes by political candidates, but to violence committed by and against ordinary people.

Contrary to obscene caricature, Joe Biden has not been a friend to those increasingly on the fringes who seek to defund the police. While pushing for smarter and more accountable policing, he’s supported cops with additional funding and new tools to manage caseloads, and he’s signed into law the most significant gun safety reforms in a generation

In 1968, Richard Nixon won the White House by promising “law and order,” against a backdrop of civil unrest and rising crime and fears of what more racial equality would bring. Echoing his own dark 2017 inaugural language about “American carnage,” Trump has been desperate to repeat the trick, and so he makes breathless and unfounded claim after breathless and unfounded claim about a country getting sucked into a vortex of chaos. He’s aided by viral videos that spread apoplectic anger among supporters, never mind what is actually happening on the ground.

We don’t put it past Trump to claim that the FBI and hundreds of police departments across America are lying — after all, he promotes the belief, against all evidence, there was a vast conspiracy to fabricate votes for Biden in 2020, and that the economy, which is outperforming every other advanced economy in the world, is actually in shambles — but reasonable people simply must see the truth. They must understand that there’s no such thing as a migrant-fueled crime wave. They must understand that the United States is not slouching toward Gomorrah.


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