According to the report, The Minsk Agreements, struck between Moscow and Kyiv in early 2015 to end fighting over Crimea’s annexation, favour Russia.
Under the agreement, Ukraine must first provide local self-rule – “special status” – to territories now held by Russia-backed forces before Moscow ends military support to separatists.
Both sides have delayed in fulfilling the Minsk Agreements, which the ICG says has “frustrated” Russia.
They added: “Russia’s recent troop movements and rhetoric suggest it may be growing frustrated, and perhaps is trying to squeeze Ukraine into making concessions.
“Moscow may hope that a combination of force build-up and Russian rhetoric about “protecting citizens” will make Kyiv think twice about responding if Russian-backed forces, unbound by the ceasefire as it dissolves, seek tactical advantages.
“Though the new outpost in Voronezh appears temporary, with the weather warming up, troops could stay there at least until Russian-Belarusian exercises scheduled for September.
“The Kremlin may hope that Western responses to the deployments demonstrate again that for all the rhetoric, no Western state will come to Ukraine’s aid if it faces an escalating military threat.”