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Covid news: Normality ‘some way off’ as third wave likely to hit this summer says expert


The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned that with a projected third wave coming sometime around late July or early August, hospital admissions could hit the peak levels seen in January. Three separate universities conducted predictive modelling with each expressing doubt on the final step of Boris Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown on June 21, in which all legal restrictions will be removed.

Citing the models from Imperial College London, Warwick University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) said: “It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the Roadmap.”

SAGE modelling made public on April 5, predicted that in a worst case scenario, resurgences in hospitalisations would be on a “similar scale to January 2021.”

On Monday, Boris Johnson confirmed the second measure of easing lockdown restrictions, allowing hospitality to re-open outdoors from April 12 but warned that normality still remains “some way off.”

SAGE continued to add that despite easing of lockdown restrictions, Mr Johnson’s decision to proceed with stage 2 of the roadmap was not likely to overwhelm the NHS so long as the country’s successful vaccination scheme proceeds as planned.

“Any resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths following Step 2 of the Roadmap alone is highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS,” SAGE said on Monday.

Mr Johnson advised that the public should not yet book overseas summer holidays because border openings, planned for May 17, could be delayed.

Data from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggested that two doses of the vaccine only provide 31 percent protection against transmission.

This is because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus even if they show no symptoms.

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“This virus will be with us for the foreseeable future. We will have significant problems with Covid for the foreseeable future, and I don’t think we should pretend otherwise.”


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